Economic Indicators (as on September 30, 2024)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index inched up marginally to 3.65% in Aug’24 from 3.6% in JuL’24 largely on account of an uptick in food inflation. Fuel and light segment continued to remain in deflation, continuing the trend observed over the past one year. Core inflation remained largely benign. Though, retail inflation is below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) eased to 1.31% in Aug’24 from 2.04% in Jul’24 due to a slower rise in manufacturing and fuel prices. It stepped out of the deflationary zone for the tenth time in row.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, mainly due to a good show by the electricity sectors. Growth in manufacturing and electricity output moderated to 4.6% and 7.9% respectively. Mining output accelerated to 3.7%. Year-on-year increase in output was seen in 17 out of 23 subcategories

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased marginally to 56.5 in Sep’24 from 57.5 in Aug’24, as both output and new orders grew at a slower pace. Additionally, new export orders dropped to the lowest level since Mar'23. PMI Services dropped significantly to 57.7 in Sep’24 from 60.9 in Aug’24 as total new business, international sales and output all rose at the slower rates. Though the reading remains in the expansion zone as a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil decreased to US$ 71.77 on Sep'24 end from US$ 78.8 on Aug'24 end as expectations of increased OPEC+ production overshadowed concerns over supply disruptions from Libya. There were concerns about the outlook for demand due to largely to the economic deceleration in China and US and concerns that the U.S. economy might face a recession. The Rupee closed the month on 83.8013 against Greenback as on Sep'24.

Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex increased marginally during the month by 2.28% and 2.35% respectively following continuous foreign fund inflows and prospects of solid domestic economic growth amid a healthy monsoon. Investors reacted positively to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rate by 50 bps, signalling further easing in coming months to keep the labor market from slowing too much. The market has surged due to the infusion of retail investors, the strength of India's economic growth, and growing hope about the potential start of a rate-cutting cycle. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in Indian equities to the tune of ₹57723.80 crores this month. Gross goods and services tax (GST) collections in Sep’24 stood at Rs. 1,73,240 crore, representing a 6.5% rise on a yearly basis and this points towards the growing trajectory of the Indian economy. Dow Jones increased by 1.85% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Brent crude oil decreased to US$ 71.77 on Sep'24 end from US$ 78.8 on Aug'24 end as expectations of increased OPEC+ production overshadowed concerns over supply disruptions from Libya. There were concerns about the outlook for demand due to largely to the economic deceleration in China and US and concerns that the U.S. economy might face a recession. The Rupee closed the month on 83.8013 against Greenback as on Sep'24.