Economic Indicators (as on October 31, 2024)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index hits nine-month high to 5.49% in Sept’24 from 3.65% in Aug’24 largely on account of an uptick in food inflation, high base effect and adverse weather conditions. While prices of cereals, meat and fish, eggs, and pulses fell in September, prices of milk and milk products, fruits, and vegetables rose during the month. Though, retail inflation is below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 1.84% in Sept’24 from 1.31% in Aug’24 driven mainly by higher prices in food articles and other manufacturing segment though Fuel and power sector deflated. It stepped out of the deflationary zone for the eleventh time in row.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decelerated to -0.1% in Aug’24 from 4.8% in Jul’24. The slowdown was primarily due to an unfavourable base and a contraction in the mining and electricity sectors due to excess rains. The three major components of IIP, including mining, manufacturing and electricity, witnessed a contraction of 4.2 per cent, growth of 1 per cent and contraction of 3.7 per cent, respectively. A decline in output was observed in 11 out of the 23 manufacturing subcategories.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased marginally to 57.9 in Oct’24 from 56.5 in Sep’24, driven by faster growth in total new orders and international sales. Additionally, new export orders showed stronger growth. PMI Services rose slightly to 57.9 in Oct’24 from 57.7 in Sep’24, supported by a strong rise in new work intakes. The reading remains in the expansion zone, as a score above 50 indicates expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil increased to US$ 73.16 on Oct'24 end from US$ 71.77 on Sep'24 end on expectations of higher demand for fuel and because of concerns that a wider Middle East conflict could disrupt global energy shipments. The Rupee closed the month on 84.0837 against Greenback as on Oct'24.

Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex decreased drastically during the month by -6.22% and -5.83% respectively following a result of a widespread sell-off in all sectors as investors' desire for riskier assets was tempered by worries of a war between Iran and Israel. Continuous foreign fund outflows and rise in global crude oil prices on supply uncertainty amid escalating tensions in the Middle East due to the conflict also added to fall. Anxiety over the next U.S. election also contributed to the cautious undertone that predominated. However, during the month, sentiment was boosted after the RBI in its latest monetary policy meeting shifted its stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral’. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of Rs.94,016.92 crore. Gross goods and services tax (GST) collections in Oct’24 stood at Rs. 1.87 trillion, the second highest collection so far since the time it was introduced, representing a 8.9% rise on a yearly basis and this points towards the growing trajectory of the Indian economy. Dow Jones decreased by 1.34% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper remained range-bound, closing at 6.85% on Oct'24 vs 6.75% on Sep'24 following rise in U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices over an escalating conflict in the Middle East following Iran's missile strikes on Israel. US 10 year G-Sec closed lower at 4.2844% on Oct’24 vs 3.7809% on Sep’24.