Economic Indicators (as on November 29, 2024)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index hits 14-month high to 6.21% in Oct’24 from 5.49% in Sep’24 largely on account of an uptick in food inflation, breaching the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) upper tolerance level of 6%. High food inflation in Oct'24 is mainly due to increase in inflation of vegetables, fruits and oils and fats. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4-month to 2.36% in Oct’24 from 1.84% in Sept’24 driven mainly by higher prices in food articles and other manufacturing segment. row.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rebounded to 3.1% in Sep’24 from -0.1% in Aug’24. The recovery was primarily supported by an improvement in the manufacturing sector output, which grew by 3.9% compared to 1.1% in August. Additionally, mining and electricity output reversed from a contraction in the previous month, growing by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, further supporting the IIP rebound. Year-on-year increase was seen in 18 out of 23 subcategories.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased marginally to 56.5 in Nov’24 from 57.9 in Oct’24. Strong global demand and a four-month high export orders boosted India's manufacturing growth. However, output growth is slowing due to rising price pressures. PMI Services rose to 59.2 in Oct’24 from 57.9 in Oct’24, marking the 40th consecutive month of expansion. This increase, the fastest since Aug'24, was driven by strong demand and improving business conditions supported by strong rise in new work intakes. The reading remains in the expansion zone, as a score above 50 indicates expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil decreased marginally to US$ 72.94 on Nov'24 end from US$ 73.16 on Oct'24 as fears of an Israeli attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure eased. The decline was also influenced by reduced concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and expectations of increased supply in 2025, despite OPEC+ likely extending output cuts. The Rupee closed the month on 84.4925 against Greenback as on Nov'24.

Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex moved during the month by -0.31% % and 0.52% respectively amid rise in dollar index and softening second quarter earnings, continuous foreign fund outflows and uncertainty amid escalating tensions in the Middle East due to the conflict also added to fall. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of ₹21,611.93 crore. Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in Nov’24 stood at Rs. 1.82 trillion, mostly driven by festive demand, representing a 8.5% rise on a yearly basis and this points towards the growing trajectory of the Indian economy. Dow Jones increased by 7.54% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper remained range-bound, closing at 6.74% on Nov'24 vs 6.85% on Oct'24 following weaker-than-expected domestic GDP growth data for the second quarter of FY25 and fall in U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rate by 25 bps in its Nov'24 policy meeting . US 10 year G-Sec closed lower at 4.1685% on Nov’24 vs 4.2844% on Oct’24.

India GDP Growth Rate

India’s GDP hit a 7-quarter low of 5.4% for Q2 FY25 vs 6.7% for Q1 FY25 and much below the market expectations. While the GDP growth was expected to moderate as being indicated by some of the high frequency macroeconomic indicators and weaker corporate performance, domestic consumption and adverse weather impacts on key industries, the quantum of deceleration is much sharper than expected. In terms of the sectors, agriculture growth continued to recover, services sector, too, maintained its broad momentum, however, the industrial sector performed poorly, with all major subheads witnessing a slowdown. A prolonged monsoon this year impacted the mining sector. Additionally, the contraction in public capex further slowed construction activities. The manufacturing growth witnessed a steep slowdown in growth. The RBI has retained its GDP growth forecast at 7.2% for the current fiscal year, down from 8.2% in the previous year, whilst numerous private economists have reduced their estimates.