Economic Indicators (as on January 31, 2024)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index increased to 4-month high of 5.69% in Dec’23 from 5.55% in Nov’23 due to increase in prices of some food items. Though, Retail inflation is below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is 0.73% in Dec’23 from 0.26% in Nov’23, at a 9-month high, mainly due to faster rises in prices of food and primary articles and highly unfavourable base effect. It stepped out of the deflationary zone for the second time in row.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slumps to 8-month low of 2.4% in Nov’23 from 11.6% in Oct’23, due to a significant deceleration in key sectors namely manufacturing sector growing by 1.2%, mining sector growing by 6.8% and electricity growing by 5.8%.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 56.5 in Jan’24 from 54.9 in Dec’23, to 4-month high as the health of manufacturing sector improved substantially on the back of fast growth in new orders and production. Current output expanded on robust demand, with domestic orders growing at a faster pace than export orders. The manufacturing PMI has now spent 31 consecutive months above the key level of 50. PMI Services increased to 61.8 in Jan’24 from 59 in Dec’23. New business expanded at a faster pace and managers’ expectation for future activity was strong. The new export business index accelerated, signalling that India’s services exports remained robust. Though the reading remains in the expansion zone as a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil stood at ~US$ 81.71 as economic reports from the two largest economies in the world increased expectations for more crude consumption this year. The increase in the prices was because U.S. crude inventories decreased more than expected. The Rupee closed the month on 83.0412 against Greenback as on Jan'24.


Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex decreased marginally during the month by -0.03% and -0.68% respectively on m-o-m basis following muted quarter end earning numbers of some index heavyweight companies and rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of ₹ 25743.63 crores this month. Domestic retail inflation is within the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6% in Nov’23. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection stood at ₹ 1.72 lakh crore for Jan’24, 10.4% more than the corresponding period of last year and this points towards the growing trajectory of the Indian economy. Dow Jones increased by 1.22% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper remained range-bound, closing at 7.144% on Jan'24 vs 7.174% on Dec'23 following the fiscally responsible union budget which positively surprised the market participants with lower-than-expected fiscal deficit and gross borrowing targets for FY'25. 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed lower at 3.9124% on Jan’24 vs 3.8791% on Dec’23.


Note : The data/statistics are given to explain general market trends, it should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation. The sector(s) mentioned are for the purpose of understanding only and the Fundmayormaynot have any future position in these sector(s).
Source: Bloomberg