Economic Indicators (as on April 28, 2023)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index decreased to 15 months low, 5.66% in Mar’23 from 6.44% in Feb’23, largely due to base effect and decrease in prices of vegetables, oils, meat and fish, and lowered inflation of other food items. Retail inflation is below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) cools down to 29 months low of 1.34% in Mar’23 from 3.85% in Feb’23, primarily contributed by fall in the prices of manufactured items and fuel and power. This is the 10th straight month of decline in WPI-based inflation.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 5.6% in Feb’23 from 5.2% in Jan’23 primarily owing to a moderate growth in electricity output and subdued growth in mining and manufacturing. The electricity and mining sectors rose by 8.2% and 4.6% respectively, whereas the manufacturing sector increased by 5.3% in Feb'23.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 4 months high of 57.2 in Apr’23 from 56.4 in Mar’23 attributed to robust and quicker expansion in new orders. The sector also benefitted from relatively mild price pressures, better international sales and improving supply-chain conditions in Apr'23. PMI Services rose to 13 years high of 62 in Apr’23 from 57.8 in Mar’23 and thereby indicating a decent rate of expansion. The latest reading pointed to the 21st successive month of increase in the service sector as robust domestic and foreign demand was supported by healthy inflows of new businesses and favourable market conditions despite rising cost pressures. The reading remains in the expansion zone as a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil stood at ~US$ 79.54 with supply cuts and further production cuts in place. Across the world, concerns over turmoil in the international banking sector and uncertainty over interest rates hit the demand outlook of the commodity. The Rupee closed the month on 81.83 against Greenback as on Apr'23.


Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex increased significantly during the month by 4.06% and 3.60% respectively on m-o-m basis majorly supported by strong corporate earnings season as well as RBI pausing consecutive rate hikes. Domestic retail inflation came below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level of 6% in Mar’23 also added to positive sentiments in the markets. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection stood at ` 1.87 lakh crore in Apr’23, highest ever, which is 12% more than the corresponding period of last year. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in Indian equities to the tune of ` 11630.87 crores this month. Dow Jones increased by 2.48% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper decreased slightly, closing at 7.119% on Apr'23 vs 7.311% on Mar'23 following Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) kept policy rates on hold in the first monetary policy review of FY24. Bond yields declined as U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at ending the rate hike cycle soon. 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed higher at 3.422% on Apr’23 vs 3.467% on Mar’23.

Note : The data/statistics are given to explain general market trends, it should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation. The sector(s) mentioned are for the purpose of understanding only and the Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s).

Source: Bloomberg