Economic Indicators (as on October 31, 2022)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index further increased this month to 7.41% in Sep’22, from 7% in Aug’22 due to spike in food prices. The current level of inflation continues to remain above the 6% mark for the ninth consecutive month. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) decreased to 10.70% in Sep'22 from 12.41% in Aug'22 despite a rise in prices of crude and manufactured products. The current level of inflation continues to rise above RBI’s limit of 4%-6% in response to rise in prices of mineral oil, natural gas, basic metals, chemicals and chemical products, food articles etc.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) fell to -0.8% in Aug’22 from 2.2% in Jul’22 showing decrease in industrial activity for first time since Feb’21. The electricity sector rose by 1.4%, whereas the manufacturing and mining sectors shrank by 0.7% and 3.9% respectively in Aug'22.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) saw a minor jump to 55.3 in Oct’22 from 55.1 in Sep’22 but it still remains in good shape despite fears of global headwinds. PMI Services slightly rose to 55.1 in Oct’22 from six-month low 54.3 in Sep'22 due to ongoing recovery in new work and improvement in business confidence supporting hiring activity amongst service providers. The reading remains in the expansion zone as a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil stood at ~US$ 94.83 due to the demand supply disruption across the world on concerns over slowdown in global growth, rising inflation and worries of more interest rate hikes by the central banks in the coming months led to fears of a recession which hit the demand outlook of the commodity. The Rupee closed the month on 82.79 against Greenback as on Oct'22.

Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex increased by 5.37% and 5.78% respectively owing to positive quarterly results of larger corporates and strengthening of the rupee boosting domestic market sentiments. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection stood at ₹1.52 lakh crore in Oct’22, which is the second highest ever and is 16.92% more than the corresponding period of last year. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of ₹8.10 crore this month. Dow Jones increased drastically by 13.95% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper slightly rose, closing at 7.44% on 31st Oct'22 vs 7.40% on 30th Sep'22 following over aggressive monetary policy tightening. Monetary Policy Committee kept key policy repo rate unchanged and U.S. Fed interest rates also remained unchanged which was as per market expectations and more rate hikes are expected in the upcoming meeting. The U.S. Fed chief indicated that it may slowdown the pace of rate hikes in the future meetings which also aided market sentiment. 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed higher at 4.05% on Oct’22 vs 3.83% on Sep'22.