Economic Indicators (as on November 30, 2022)

Inflation in India (%)

Consumer Price Index decreased to 3-month low, 6.77% in Oct’22 from 7.41% in Sep’22 due to decline in prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses and oil. The current level of inflation continues to remain above the 6% mark for the ninth consecutive month. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) decreased to 8.39% in Oct'22 from 10.70% in Sep'22, lowest since Mar'21, primarily contributed by fall in the price of basic metals, crude oil and manufactured products. The current level of inflation continues to rise above RBI’s limit of 4%-6%.

Index of Industrial Production (%)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 3.1% in Sep’22 from -0.8% in Aug’22 primarily owing to a rise in manufacturing and mining outputs. The electricity sector rose by 11.6%, whereas the manufacturing and mining sectors increased by 1.8% and 4.6% respectively in Sep'22.

Indian Business Indicators - Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 3 months high, 55.7 in Nov’22 from 55.3 in Oct’22 as new order and exports expanded and there was a substantial easing of input cost pressure. PMI Services rose to 3 months high, 56.4 in Nov’22 from 55.1 in Oct’22 due to sharp expansion in output and further job creation. The reading remains in the expansion zone as a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

USD INR & Brent Crude Movement

Brent crude oil stood at ~US$ 85.43 due to the demand supply disruption across the world on concerns over slowdown in global growth, rising inflation and worries of more interest rate hikes by the central banks in the coming months which hit the demand outlook of the commodity. The Rupee closed the month on 81.43 against Greenback as on Nov'22.

Equity Markets - India & US

Bellwether indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex increased by 4.14% and 3.87% respectively owing to strong corporate earning numbers for the quarter ended Sep’22 and decline in global crude oil prices. Firm global cues along with the strong foreign fund inflows helped to uplift the market sentiments. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection stood at ₹1.45 lakh crore in Nov’22, which is 11% more than the corresponding period of last year. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in Indian equities to the tune of ₹36238.63 crore this month. Dow Jones increased drastically by 5.67% from previous month.

Interest Rate Movement (%) - India & US

Yield on the 10-Year benchmark paper declined slightly, closing at 7.28% on 30th Nov'22 vs 7.44% on 31st Oct'22 following lower inflation readings in the India. The U.S. Fed chief indicated that it may slowdown the pace of rate hikes in the future meetings which also aided market sentiment. 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed lower at 3.61% on Nov’22 vs 4.05% on Oct’22.

India GDP Growth Rate

India’s Real GDP grows at a 6.3% for Q2 FY23 vs 13.5% for Q1 FY23. Normalisation of base and disappointing performance by the manufacturing sector led to a lower growth in Q2 compared with Q1 FY23. However, both sequential improvement and good growth over the pre-pandemic level (Q2 FY20) signal the economy’s resilience despite global growth and financial uncertainties.